Getting Slam Hands wrong!

[OliverC]

Eszter and I had mixed fortunes today. We each went off in two successive slams that should have made:

Hand 1
You are South, the dealer at Game All.

Bidding
South       West       North       East
1             No           2           3
No ⁽¹⁾           No           4 ⁽²⁾      X
5             No           6           All Pass

⁽¹⁾ Gamma in Clubs
⁽²⁾ 7-card , 1 top honour

West leads the 2 and you can see the following

North
  J983
  AQ
  -
  AJ108543

South
  AK7
  J5
  AQ1092
  Q72

On the lead of the 2 how do you plan the play?

.
.
.

You're pretty much on a guess in the Spade suit. If you try the Jack, unlucky! East covers with the Queen and your
King wins the trick. What now? Clearly the probable Heart loser in Dummy is going on the Ace of Diamonds, so that's not an issue. Is it really likely that East has 9-card Hearts and an opening ruff is a possibility? Well anything is possible, but 3 seems a little wet with a 9-card suit. You have an almost certain Spade loser, so clearly you need to try to pick up the Clubs for no loser. Eszter played a small Club to the Ace, no doubt hoping that the Spade loser would magically disappear - unlucky. East was void in Clubs and she eventually had to concede 2 tricks.

The thing about this hand is that East is likely to have at least 6 if not 7 or even 8 Hearts on this bidding (given that they're missing the AQJ). That means they have far far fewer cards outside Hearts than West does, so it's odds on that West will have more Clubs than East. Even without the big clue from the bidding, it's odds on to finesse against an outstanding King missing 3 cards in the suit. Playing the Ace is playing for East to have the stiff King or Kx, which is greatly against the odds when they've pre-empted.


Hand 2
The very next hand Eszter and I bid to 6NT with no opposition bidding:

Love All, Dealer East.

North
  A83
  KQ65
  K107
  A102

South
  KQ
  AJ92
  A52
  Q975

1 - 1
1NT - 2NT   //   Beta  /  6 Controls
3NT - 6NT   //   HoC   /  fancies it!

West leads the 4 . How do you plan the play?

I tried the 7 from Dummy and took East's Queen with my Ace. 10 top tricks. possible finesse brings us up to 11, but clearly the critical suit here is Clubs. The classic hand distribution tables don't really help here, because most of them ignore the presence of the 9 and don't cater for the necessity of losing only 1 trick in the suit. The presence of the 9 is critical, because it raises the possibility of two finesses against West, which is a 75% probability of success (all things being equal), whereas cashing the Ace and leading small towards the Queen you are effectively on a 50% guess when Opps play a low card when you lead towards the queen.

Anyway, I led a small Club at trick 2 and inserted the 10, losing to the Jack in East's hand. East returned a small Spade. I cashed my two top Spade tricks, a Heart to Dummy's King, cashed the Ace of Spades, back to a top Heart in my hand (West discarded a Club), took the Diamond finesse (which worked), cashed the King of Diamonds (West played the Jack and East followed with the 9). The Queen and Jack of Hearts saw me back in my hand with A2 opposite Q9 (West having discarded a Club and a Spade on the Hearts). I now led the Queen of Clubs and West followed with a small one. Do I finesse or play for the drop?

I should have got this one right, all things considered. I was faked out by West's play of the Jack of Diamonds on the 3rd round of the suit and ran the Queen, losing two more tricks to East's now singleton K!C and the Jack of Spades. Was it really likely, however, that East, holding Q963 in Diamonds, would false-card with the 9 from 93, 2nd-in-hand, when I cashed the King on the 3rd round of the suit, not knowing whether I had the 6 left or not? I could tell that either the 9 or the Jack on the 3rd round of the suit was a false card, but a few seconds of thought would clarify that it was a racing certainty that it was West (4th-in-hand) who was false-carding, because they know they have the 13th Diamond. If West has the 6 , which is anyway far more likely given their lead at trick 1, then they cannot also have the King of Clubs, which must now be singleton in East's hand, so I should have dropped it to make the slam. Ho Hum. 20 IMPs away in 2 hands!

[lute57]

Thanks for sharing more excellent examples.

One question:

H
Hand 1

Bidding
South       West       North       East
1             No           2           3
No (1)         No           4 (2)      X
5             No           6           All Pass

Could South have passed East's X for Relay Beta instead of bidding 5 ? If there was a fear of getting too high (e.g. receiving a four step response), wouldn't there be a safety net as partnership would have to have at least 10 controls if North gave any response of four-steps or higher?

[OliverC]

Hi All,


Yes Eszter could have passed 4 as Relay Beta, but remember that South is a semi-balanced minimum and she knows we're missing a Club honour it's perfectly fine that she signs off. Any impetus for slam has to come from my side of the table. It's a bit like the hand I reported on yesterday: Sometimes with a minimum it's better to sign off without using Beta (which sends a message) and allows Responder to use their judgement (as here).