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Interesting Play Hands / Re: An Instructive Hand for Assumptions & Counting
« on: January 09, 2022, 10:27:07 AM »
Counting is the key, though, Brian:
Please note, guys, this is not a "Hail Mary" play. Playing for West to have the King and East to have 10x would fall into that category, for sure. Giving East the Ace, King and KQ is entirely consistent with the bidding and West's opening lead of the Jack.
- East opened the bidding so they have at have at least 11-12 HCP
- That in turn means that West is unlikely to have more than 3 HCP, probably less.
- Since you cannot stop East from taking their Ace at some point there is no way you can make this contract if the Diamonds are 5-3.
- Thus you have to base your play on the assumption that the Diamonds are 4-4.
- Note that you don't really lose anything if it turns out that the Diamonds are 5-3 after all.
- Once East shows up with a singleton Club, then if the are 4-4 (your assumption) East must be 4441 or they would have a 5-card Major and would have opened that instead of 1 .
- Now you can count the hand and plan to get them down to Ax, Kx, Q, - when you play the 5th round of Clubs.
- Whether they discard the small Spade or blank their King you can now endplay them with a or drop the singleton King of Hearts.
Please note, guys, this is not a "Hail Mary" play. Playing for West to have the King and East to have 10x would fall into that category, for sure. Giving East the Ace, King and KQ is entirely consistent with the bidding and West's opening lead of the Jack.