Oliver, your line is fine to me but I would eat the herring.
To me
the key is the timing of the Diamond entries removal. The hand is dead to us both
unless the spade finesse works? So it does! The AD is access to the table but give them the opportunity to lead it
... and they most likely will? And they would expect any line that doesn't knock out the diamond hold as normal so the play in another suit would appear reasonable to most defenders. For that reason I don't think the initial club play is as revealing as you say and especially to the defender who holds the KH. So I will duck the first club for a potential extra club trick. The immediate duck doesn't give too much away; less than delayed and extra count information,
if not more. The duck is my best opportunity to make them guess.
OK, then they don't lead diamonds as hoped but a heart. Now its time to win the diamond. I'm in a similar position to one plan in needing the hook to work. For that sequence when the hook wins you have no opportunity to duck in clubs so at least 9 tricks. If clubs are 3-3 all along, my sequence is at least 10 tricks at little cost? I think many defenders would knock out the AD against the risk of opening the heart suit after the initial duck
short of any other clues.
BTW, I think Eszter's line is
very dangerous. "At trick 2 she played Ace, King and a 3rd Club".
If clubs following are 4-2 the two tricks are immediately lost AND the other defender has had a chance to direct the defence with his signal. Now besides the spade play there is little hope of an extra crumb. The play of A then KC
deserves a 5-1 break and now the defences focus now is also on hearts.
Oliver says "As you say, Brian, the potential advantage of Ace, King and another Club is if West wins the 3rd Club and the Clubs are no worse than 4-2. West ended up thinking Declarer had the
King and felt they could do no better than to take the
finesse for you
"
After two clubs, they would hopefully not be worse than 4-2 but to any decent defenders, the order of the last two clubs played by EW will likely give information about other suits for the defenders. In effect one defender could say to or not to lead spades. The blind lead of the QS is just that, blind. So bad I would not have considered that possibility in my planning. As well Eszter's play of the top two clubs gives up all control of the suit, and some flexibility that might be required later in the hand. IMO a poorer play. I'd like some crumbs with my herring, please.
That was a nightmare look ahead. My opponent didn't lead hearts and instead knocked out the AD as hoped. My post is like one of those horrible films where the scenes jump all over the place. Back to reality.
We play on, but the finesse loses. Damm. OK, lets hope
the 8D was a short lead ... doubleton it has to be, so it is, at least we still have the extra chance that the club duck gave us for the 9th trick. Did we survive?
At the worst a third diamond is lead, but doesn't that also break any other sequence? I think I've covered most of my bases without giving the opponents information that might have reduced their guesses. At least they do have a guess, that might have been my only real hope in the end.
What. The defender lead the 8D from 4 small.
Thank goodness I didn't cash those top clubs. Thank you for the 5-1 break. Thank you Herring, Justice at last. Now I need the KH to be well placed.
So it is! Surely after all those setbacks something is OK.
No its off too. What a mess, 27 HCP, no game, two undertricks. Partner cheerful as usual observes, another other pair made it with the same lead.
Bloody Herring.In summary IMO this hand is about good planning and counting. Combining chances. Timing. Making assumptions that will allow you to succeed if all other plans are likely to fail. Sometimes an early play in a key suit before the opponents know what is happening may give them more problems. Giving the opponents as little information as is possible. If all else is equal, at least give them plays that allow them a guess
I'm guilty of not reading all the other replies. I see now most of my opinions have already been voiced in earlier posts.