Author Topic: Make a Plan! Concentrate on the Essentials!  (Read 2873 times)

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Offline OliverC

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Make a Plan! Concentrate on the Essentials!
« on: June 23, 2017, 10:25:00 AM »
Another hand from my game with Eszter last night. I hope she will forgive me for detailing this hand, but the points illustrated are really important: I've changed the positions to make the hand easy to "see":

You are South, EW Vulnerable, Dealer East:
North
 !S 10
 !H AJ972
 !D K754
 !C QJ7

South
 !S 974
 !H K108543
 !D 8
 !C A42

Bidding
East   South   West   North
No      2 !H        2 !S     No
3 !S     No          4 !S     5 !H
No      No           X        All Pass

(In case you're wondering about North's initial Pass over 2 !S , I felt I had too many Hearts and too many hcp and didn't want to push EW to a making game they might not bid otherwise. Once they had bid 4 !S , I obviously had a very cheap sacrifice.)

The early play - Making a Plan
West cashed the Ace of Spades and switched to the Club 10, covered in Dummy and you take East's King with your Ace.

What's your plan?
.
.
.
That's the really crucial question, because you need to have a plan. This contract is at most -1 (losing 1 trick in each side suit) but you really need to try to make it, because some NS pairs might buy the contract in 4 !H , and some EW pairs might push on to 5 !S , which is probably going to be off with the K !C onside.

Although the Clubs have started well for you, you have a losing club which needs to be discarded. The only reasonable chance for that is to find the Ace of Diamonds onside. There is very little chance of finding West with 5 Diamonds (and East with Axx), which would allow you to ruff out the Ace, and there is similarly no chance of the 98 of Clubs disappearing into thin air.

So your plan should be a very simple one, A Heart to Dummy's Ace and a Heart back to hand (however the trumps are distributed - in practice East had both of them) and then lead a Diamond towards the King. West, holding the Ace of Diamonds, is powerless. They either let the King of Diamonds win, in which case your 3rd losing trick disappears, or they rise with the Ace and now the King of Diamonds takes care of your 3rd Club. If it turns out that East has the Ace of Diamonds, you've lost nothing, because the hand was unmakeable.

At the Table
It was clear at the table that Eszter hadn't made any sort of plan. At trick 3 she ruffed a Spade, a small Heart back to the King (West showing out) and another Spade ruffed with a small Heart. This now left Dummy with the !H AJ, !D Kxxx, !C Qx, and no way to get off Dummy without conceding a cheap Diamond trick. Even ruffing her 3rd Spade with the Jack would have been good enough, because now she can remove East's last trump with the Ace and cross back to hand in the trump suit to lead the Diamond.

The thing here was that Declarer can ruff her losing Spades any time. There's absolutely no rush to do it. Even if the Hearts are 2-0, Dummy will always have 3 trumps left to cater for your 2 losing Spades. The only issue on this hand is how to get rid of the 3rd Club in your hand before Opps can remove the Queen of Clubs in Dummy. There might be occasions when eliminating the Spades from both hands was important, but this clearly wasn't one of them.

5 !H X making would have been worth 8.2 IMPs. Because 4 !S wasn't making, 5 !H X -1 was worth -6 IMPs, a 14 IMP difference. Team Matches often turn on much smaller swings than that!

Make a plan! Concentrate on the essential features of the hand!
« Last Edit: June 23, 2017, 10:31:47 AM by OliverC »
Oliver

Offline lute57

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Re: Make a Plan! Concentrate on the Essentials!
« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2017, 08:07:42 PM »
Thanks, for sharing the postmortem.

I really enjoy your explanations - they are very clear.

John

Offline OliverC

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Re: Make a Plan! Concentrate on the Essentials!
« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2017, 09:12:28 PM »
Like I said, I hope Eszter will forgive me for including this one, but this is nothing to do with arcane distributions or clever plays or detailed counting. This is really basic stuff that comes down to distilling what the crucial aspect of any hand is and trying to figure out how best to achieve it: Here the position of the Ace of Diamonds is ostensibly a 50/50 proposition, but given the bidding, the odds probably favour it being with West. As Declarer, therefore, you have to make the assumption, therefore, that it is with West, because that is literally the only chance you have of making this contract and getting a decent score.
Oliver

Offline RogerPfi

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Featured as Deal no. 1 in 'More from Oliver' in aaBridge
« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2017, 05:56:15 PM »
Featured as Deal  no. 1  in 'More from Oliver' in aaBridge

            http://rogerpf.com/aaBridge

in aaBridge       menubar   >    Books-L      >   Writer - More from Oliver 

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