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Interesting Play Hands / Re: An Instructive Hand for Assumptions & Counting
« on: January 09, 2022, 10:27:07 AM »
Counting is the key, though, Brian:
Queen then you just have to credit their expert play - you gave it your best shot. Now they can exit to the Spade Q in West's hand and West can either cash a long Diamond or lead a
through. Not many defenders will think of chucking a sure-fire winner in order to keep an exit card, however.
Please note, guys, this is not a "Hail Mary" play. Playing for West to have the
King and East to have
10x would fall into that category, for sure. Giving East the
Ace,
King and
KQ is entirely consistent with the bidding and West's opening lead of the
Jack.
- East opened the bidding so they have at have at least 11-12 HCP
- That in turn means that West is unlikely to have more than 3 HCP, probably less.
- Since you cannot stop East from taking their
Ace at some point there is no way you can make this contract if the Diamonds are 5-3.
- Thus you have to base your play on the assumption that the Diamonds are 4-4.
- Note that you don't really lose anything if it turns out that the Diamonds are 5-3 after all.
- Once East shows up with a singleton Club, then if the
are 4-4 (your assumption) East must be 4441 or they would have a 5-card Major and would have opened that instead of 1
.
- Now you can count the hand and plan to get them down to
Ax,
Kx,
Q,
- when you play the 5th round of Clubs.
- Whether they discard the small Spade or blank their
King you can now endplay them with a
or drop the singleton King of Hearts.
![Diamonds !D](http://ocp.pigpen.org.uk/smf/Smileys/default/icon_diamonds.gif)
![Hearts !H](http://ocp.pigpen.org.uk/smf/Smileys/default/icon_hearts.gif)
Please note, guys, this is not a "Hail Mary" play. Playing for West to have the
![Hearts !H](http://ocp.pigpen.org.uk/smf/Smileys/default/icon_hearts.gif)
![Hearts !H](http://ocp.pigpen.org.uk/smf/Smileys/default/icon_hearts.gif)
![Spades !S](http://ocp.pigpen.org.uk/smf/Smileys/default/icon_spades.gif)
![Hearts !H](http://ocp.pigpen.org.uk/smf/Smileys/default/icon_hearts.gif)
![Diamonds !D](http://ocp.pigpen.org.uk/smf/Smileys/default/icon_diamonds.gif)
![Diamonds !D](http://ocp.pigpen.org.uk/smf/Smileys/default/icon_diamonds.gif)