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Interesting Play Hands / Re: Beautiful analysis by a World Class dummy
« Last post by iamadeus on March 07, 2022, 08:01:32 AM »
Part three of this interesting hand:

The only way to develop 3 tricks in clubs is if they split 3-3. We need to surrender a trick in the suit but we must take care to allow East to win to prevent West from leading a heart through the Q in dummy. The solution (patently obvious to world class players but needed more than a few minutes of quiet deliberation from me) is to go to dummy twice and lead clubs towards the AK. If East tries to pitch the Q, we let him have the trick. If East ducks, we win with the A or K and go back to dummy to lead the suit again. If East started out with Qxx then he is endplayed into either conceding a trick to the King of hearts or to return another suit, which gives us the timing to score 3 club tricks without losing control in hearts.

Now the key is to lead clubs twice towards the AK. This means we need two entries to dummy. We could set up Q !S by guess the spade position - that’s one entry. The other entry has to come from the spade suit. If we are able to think this far ahead, we would realize that after winning the heart at trick 1 and playing the A of spades, we need to lead a high spade towards the Q to set it up. We again use the other high spade in our hand to reach the Q. Finally, we can play the 4 of spades and win with the 5 to reach dummy a second time. All this needs to be planned at trick 2 so that we don’t squander 4 !S in trying to set up the Q!

The actual lie of cards was a bit different from the line that was described. Tom Townsend went for the spades but played the 4 !S too early, realizing his mistake only after playing the card. He did manage to find Kx !S in East hand. He then went about trying to lose a club trick to east but unfortunately West held QJx, so the whole point of leading clubs twice from dummy was moot. Once West got in, they led a heart as expected. Having made the mistake earlier, Tom guessed the heart position correctly and ducked the second heart trick. East won with the 10 and played the Ace to clear the suit, however, the suit was blocked. It turned out that West had J98xx in hearts and their only entry was the Q of clubs! 9 tricks made due to declarer’s excellent guess in the spade suit and in playing for the heart suit to be blocked.

The twist in the tale is that East can have the last laugh if they figure out to pitch K !S when declarer plays the A. West has J10x, so this gives them an extra entry to set up hearts and later cash them when they get in with Q !C. Even world class players have their limitations in finding a play like that ..
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Interesting Play Hands / Re: Beautiful analysis by a World Class dummy
« Last post by iamadeus on March 05, 2022, 03:23:43 PM »
Hi John,

You’re right that if 9 tricks are to be had then they must be 3 spades, 1 heart, 2 diamonds and 3 clubs (assuming a 3-3 split). If A !H is with West, then we can potentially live with one less black suit trick. There is still much work to be done. If the plan is to score 3 clubs and 2 spades, it means that we have to lose the lead twice in spades (assuming any 3-2 split) and once in clubs. This will allow opps to set up their heart suit and score 5 tricks before we get our 9. So it means we have to plan on 3 spade tricks: either assume K !S is with West or hope for Kx in East hand. So at trick 2 we would play A !S and another, planning to either finesse the Q or duck one round of spades, depending on which guess we decide to take. Either of these two lines could work, since we only need to lose the lead once in spades. Assuming A !H with West, the first line (which is what you went with) is 25%, while the second is 17% (34% chance that East has Kx in spades and 50% chance that West has A !H).

However, what if East has the Ace of hearts? This is very likely given the lead. Now we need 6 black suit tricks because we will get only 1 heart. We need to lose the lead twice (once in spades and once in clubs), so opps could potentially score their 3 hearts, a spade and a club before we get our 9. West is the dangerous opponent; if we let him in, then we lose the timing. However if we lose the lead to East in spades, they cannot play hearts from their side, so we have a fighting chance to lose the lead again in clubs. So going back to the spade suit line: it looks like finessing West for K !S has no chance but hoping that East has K !S still gives us a chance. This is roughly an additional 6%: 50% for East to have A !H x 34% for East to have Kx or Kxx in !S (only need 2 spades) x 35% for clubs to split 3-3.

So it looks like 25% for the spade finesse play and 17+6 = 23% for the spade duck play. The declarer Tom Townsend smelt a rat and suspected East to have A !H, so he chose the latter line. However, he was not out of the woods yet with the spade suit duck. We still need to lose the lead in clubs and if we allow West in, we are back to the same problem of opps running 3 tricks in hearts. So we need to engineer it such that we lose the club trick to East, meaning that we have to hope for East to have Qxx in clubs. Opponents are world-class players and they will see this coming right from trick 1. East will happily throw his Q if he sees declarer play A or K, so that partner can win the third round of clubs and lead a heart. Note that this play doesn’t cost if declarer has AKJ of clubs since it means that they were entitled to win a club finesse anyway. It looks like the contract is doomed and Bianchedi will be the hero as East …

… but wait, is there hope yet for our dashing British pair against the foxy Argentinians? Wait for part three, the final act in this intriguing drama!

By the way it took me an hour to work all this out but it took Andrew and Kit barely 1 minute to not only see the pitfall in the club suit but also work out a winning line, assuming East has Qxx. I can only stare at them in awe and so I’m going to pause for dramatic effect to let everyone try to figure it out. You will come to realize, as I did, why they are truly world class compared to mere mortals like us.
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Interesting Play Hands / Re: Beautiful analysis by a World Class dummy
« Last post by lute57 on March 04, 2022, 04:47:39 PM »
Although Declarer play is not my forte, I'll take the bait, Aravind.

I have 5 winners - one in  !S, two in  !D, and two in  !C. I'll get another one in  !H for sure. That leaves me w/ finding three more tricks [9 - (5+1) = 3].

You can develop one of the  !C spots if the suit breaks 3-3. Nothing can be done in  !D. You can pick one up in  !H if West holds the Ace.

IMO, the best bet is to attack  !S for three tricks. I would start by leading low to the Queen (hoping the King is w/ West and the suit splits 3-2).

John




John
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Interesting Play Hands / Beautiful analysis by a World Class dummy
« Last post by iamadeus on March 04, 2022, 08:35:03 AM »
Contract: 3NT by South, Lead 9 !H showing at least one higher honor

N: !S Q532, !H Q42, !D 752, !C 864

S: !S A864, !H K5, !D AK6, !C AK52

This board was played by world class players Tom Townsend (S) & Andrew Robson (N) vs Agustin Madala (W) & Alejandro Bianchedi (E). Andrew was on Zoom along with Kit Woolsey and they provided an excellent analysis of how they would play the hand if they were declarer. What line would you take if you were to try to make the contract?
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Interesting Play Hands / Re: You say “bad split”, I say “endplay”
« Last post by brian_m on February 08, 2022, 12:27:00 AM »
Yes, I agree that I'm making those assumptions, for the reasons I gave in my earlier post. I just don't buy the idea of West penalty doubling under your club bid with less than 5 clubs, even if he has all the missing strength except for  !HQ. I agree my logic for playing for 4=1=3=5 rather than 4=0=4=5 might be a little less certain.

Anyway, I certainly wouldn't be capable of working out the probabilities at the table. It gives me headaches just trying to think through them now!  ::) One thing is certain, though, and that's if the hearts are split 5-1, the chances of a stiff  !H Q or  !H 10 in the West hand are not negligible.

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Interesting Play Hands / Re: You say “bad split”, I say “endplay”
« Last post by iamadeus on February 07, 2022, 05:00:25 PM »
I agree with everything you said but there is a problem in the argument.

Essentially you are setting up diamonds AFTER playing Ace of clubs. You assumed that diamonds were 4-3 (which is likely) but you have to hope that East has the 4th diamond. Instead, if West has 4=1=4=4 or 4=0=4=5 shape then they can take KQ of clubs when they get in with the diamond. Another problem is that if West has 4=2=3=4 shape, then it means East has 2 clubs so they can play clubs from their side when they get in with a diamond. Granted that West may not double 2 !C with this shape but it is possible, nevertheless.

I think that the likelihood of these shapes is more than the chance of catering to a singleton Q or 10 of hearts in the West hand. I didn’t have time to do the math at the table so I took a chance on the line that only assumes Q & 10 of hearts in the East hand.
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Interesting Play Hands / Re: You say “bad split”, I say “endplay”
« Last post by brian_m on February 07, 2022, 01:01:20 PM »
I understand your logic, Aravind, but I'm still not 100% convinced. The problem I have is that the deep !H finesse risks losing to a singleton 10 or Queen in West's hand. Let's try something a little different.

We know West has the 13th  !S from the 2 !S bid. I think it's also highly unlikely, unless West has taken leave of his senses, for him to have less than five  !C, possibly even six, to make what we know (following your logic) is a penalty double sitting underneath your !C suit. So, we've placed at least nine cards in the West hand, leaving only four red cards. Since West doubled the opening 1 !H, rather than overcall, I think it's fair to place him with 4-1-3-5 or maybe even 4-0-4-5, although the fact that he ran to 2 !S rather than 2 !D after your redouble is at least circumstantial evidence for for 4=1=3=5, or possibly 4=0=3=6. We have to assume that the  !D are 4-3, I think, if West has made an off-shape takeout double with only two  !D, and East is 3=5=5=0, I don't think you can make that contract without risking everything on the read and cashing the  !C A before you end up in dummy.

I think it all depends on your reading of the opponents' hands. The line of play I come up with is :-

We take, by force, the 3rd round of  !S, thinking ourselves lucky that West didn't duck the first round of  !S - I think that kills the contract.

Play a  !H, putting up the A or K from dummy. This protects against West's singleton  !H being the 10 or Queen.

Come back to the Ace of  !D, and now you can cash the Ace of  !C, removing East's (presumed) only remaining black card. Now it's time for your deep  !H finesse, then set up your fifth  !D in dummy, and East has to give you another  !H finesse.

It's quite honestly giving me headaches trying to work out which of these lines is superior. The one thing of which I'm certain is that your line is off if West's stiff  !H is the Q or 10 - you're going to lose 3 !S, 1 !H and 1 !D. My line is still alive, because I crash that high  !H. It all depends on how you read the E-W hands, I guess. 
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Interesting Play Hands / You say “bad split”, I say “endplay”
« Last post by iamadeus on February 07, 2022, 12:14:42 AM »
We came across a very interesting hand at Brian & Oliver’s practice session today.

As North I had QJ7, 72, A, AJ86543. East opens the bidding and it goes

East South West North
(P)    1 !H    (X)   1N*  [transfer to clubs]
(P)    2 !C    (X)    XX   [we think 2 !C is making]
(P)      P    (2 !S)  2N* [Relay to 3 !C]
(P)    3 !C    (P)    3N* [to play with stopper in !S]

I thought 3N was a reasonable place to play. Even if partner has a minimum like xxx, AQxxx, QJx, Qx, we can handle most 4-1 club splits and take 1 spade, 1 heart, 1 diamond and 6 clubs for 9 tricks. I got the expected 3 !S lead but got a rude shock as dummy hit with.

Dummy:
642
AKJ94
KQ852
-

Me:
QJ7
72
A
AJ86543

Defense played 3 rounds of spades all following, RHO showing up with AK as expected. So spades split 4-3. Since we had 25 HCP it became clear that the second double of 2 !C was for penalty, and the subsequent 2 !S did not show a monster hand with spades. We have 7 top tricks: 1 spade, 2 hearts, 3 diamonds and a club. If diamonds split 4-3 (likely since RHO doubled and didn’t bid 2 !D), we can get one more. The 9th trick has to come from a heart finesse.

1. There’s a problem because we have to unblock A !D to set up the suit. We then can’t cash A !C immediately because defense would then take KQ of clubs when they get in with a diamond - that’s down 1 already (at least 2 spades, KQ clubs and a diamond). So we need 9 tricks without cashing A !C.

2. The other problem is that we cannot afford to lose a finesse in hearts since the defense can put us back in dummy with a diamond and wait for 3 spades, a heart and a diamond for down one. So we have to assume that both Q and 10 of hearts are onside, since we know that hearts are splitting 4-2 or worse, given the auction. We lead a heart to dummy’s 9.

3. In order to score 4 hearts we need 2 entries to finesse twice. However, there’s no entry back to hand since we have already unblocked A !D. Our only hope is to endplay one of the opponents by putting them in with the 4th diamond.

4. When the defense gets in with a diamond, they can take the 4th spade but then they have to either lead back a heart and allow us to finesse the J, OR they lead a club to our Ace, which magically gives us an entry back to hand to finesse again in hearts.

5. This line allows us to make the contract even if hearts split 5-1 or 6-0, since we only need 1 spade, 4 hearts, 4 diamonds OR 1 spade, 4 hearts, 3 diamonds and a club (assuming they return a club).

6. An alternate line is to play for 5 heart tricks, by assuming that the suit splits 4-2 with Q & 10 onside. In this case, we don’t need to set up diamonds so we would keep A !d and use it as the second entry to finesse hearts. The original line that involves an endplay is superior because it can handle 5-1 heart splits as well as 4-2. Hence the title of this post! 

See the full deal here: https://tinyurl.com/y9vbpz8w

In retrospect, defense should have let us play 2 !C redoubled, which is very difficult to make after defense plays three rounds of spades.
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Interesting Play Hands / Re: An Instructive Hand for Assumptions & Counting
« Last post by brian_m on January 09, 2022, 01:42:37 PM »
Counting is the key, though, Brian:
  • East opened the bidding so they have at have at least 11-12 HCP
  • That in turn means that West is unlikely to have more than 3 HCP, probably less.
  • Since you cannot stop East from taking their !S Ace at some point there is no way you can make this contract if the Diamonds are 5-3.
  • Thus you have to base your play on the assumption that the Diamonds are 4-4.
  • Note that you don't really lose anything if it turns out that the Diamonds are 5-3 after all.
  • Once East shows up with a singleton Club, then if the !D are 4-4 (your assumption) East must be 4441 or they would have a 5-card Major and would have opened that instead of 1 !D.
  • Now you can count the hand and plan to get them down to !S Ax, !H Kx, !D Q, !C - when you play the 5th round of Clubs.
  • Whether they discard the small Spade or blank their !H King you can now endplay them with a !S or drop the singleton King of Hearts.
If instead they discard the !D Queen then you just have to credit their expert play  -  you gave it your best shot. Now they can exit to the Spade Q in West's hand and West can either cash a long Diamond or lead a !H through. Not many defenders will think of chucking a sure-fire winner in order to keep an exit card, however.

Please note, guys, this is not a "Hail Mary" play. Playing for West to have the !H King  and East to have !H 10x would fall into that category, for sure. Giving East the !S Ace, !H King and !D KQ is entirely consistent with the bidding and West's opening lead of the !D Jack.


On this hand, I agree. I was just trying to emphasise your last sentence in the original post. IMO, it's a very important point, that many weaker players seem to miss.
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Interesting Play Hands / Re: An Instructive Hand for Assumptions & Counting
« Last post by OliverC on January 09, 2022, 10:27:07 AM »
Counting is the key, though, Brian:
  • East opened the bidding so they have at have at least 11-12 HCP
  • That in turn means that West is unlikely to have more than 3 HCP, probably less.
  • Since you cannot stop East from taking their !S Ace at some point there is no way you can make this contract if the Diamonds are 5-3.
  • Thus you have to base your play on the assumption that the Diamonds are 4-4.
  • Note that you don't really lose anything if it turns out that the Diamonds are 5-3 after all.
  • Once East shows up with a singleton Club, then if the !D are 4-4 (your assumption) East must be 4441 or they would have a 5-card Major and would have opened that instead of 1 !D.
  • Now you can count the hand and plan to get them down to !S Ax, !H Kx, !D Q, !C - when you play the 5th round of Clubs.
  • Whether they discard the small Spade or blank their !H King you can now endplay them with a !S or drop the singleton King of Hearts.
If instead they discard the !D Queen then you just have to credit their expert play  -  you gave it your best shot. Now they can exit to the Spade Q in West's hand and West can either cash a long Diamond or lead a !H through. Not many defenders will think of chucking a sure-fire winner in order to keep an exit card, however.

Please note, guys, this is not a "Hail Mary" play. Playing for West to have the !H King  and East to have !H 10x would fall into that category, for sure. Giving East the !S Ace, !H King and !D KQ is entirely consistent with the bidding and West's opening lead of the !D Jack.
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