Reading the Hand

[OliverC]

This was a poor Board for Eszter and me. We lost out partly in the bidding and even more in the play:

You are North, the Dealer, at Love All:

North
4
AK86
KQ4
AQ842

Bidding
North     East     South     West
1         2       No⁽¹⁾      3NT
??

(1) 0-7 any shape

First question is what do you do here? East presumably has in the region of 5-9 hcp for their 2 overcall, which gives West a maximum of  about a 17-count, and that's if Partner has a yarborough and East only a 5-count, so opposite a weak jump overcall, 3NT definitely comes into the region of speculative, with support for Spades that falls short of "good", since otherwise they'd likely be bidding 4 rather than 3NT. 6 Spades and the Ace falls well short of 9 tricks, though, so I think you have three choices: Pass, Double or 4 .

(1) 4 is an outside choice, but I think it's a poor third, myself, because (1) You don't know your side even has the balance of the points and (2) You have no idea whether Partner has some Clubs or not, but if they're weak, it's unlikely they're going to disturb 4 , because anything else might be worse.

(2) Double would, I think, be my second choice. It's not ideal, because it's essentially a Penalty double which might backfire, because although Opps probably only have 7 tricks on top (if Partner has nothing), you're likely to be endplayed on the optning lead and vulnerable to being endplayed again later on.

(3) Pass would be my first choice. Now if Partner has nothing they'll presumably Pass and hope 3NT is going off, but if they have some values they will probably double for penalties, especially when they have a Spade stop (which is entirely possible given the bidding).

As it happens, 3NTX is going for a telephone number. On best defence, Declarer is probably only getting 4 tricks (so +1100). Even on mediocre defence it's going for -800 and -500 for really awful defence is still going to net you a better score than any game NS might be able to make.

Inevitably (LOL) North decided to compete with 4 and everyone passed. East led the 9 and Dummy went down:

South (Dummy)
A853
10753
106
1075

9 led

North
4
AK86
KQ4
AQ842

No use crying over split milk, because you can see immediately that 3NTX was a far better spot, and even 4 might have had chances rather than 4 .

You cover the 9 with Dummy's 10, West plays the Jack and you win. You cross to Dummy's Ace of Spades (West plays the 10) and lead the 10. West covers with the Jack and you insert the Queen which wins, East following low. Now the King is taken by West's Ace, West switches to the Queen which you ruff. Now you cash the Queen and ruff a Diamond in Dummy. East plays the Jack on the third round.

Now what? Your play to this point has been fairly automatic and inevitable, but how do you view the hand from here? Clearly, East started with KJxxxx and Jxx. The 9 lead might have been a singleton or a doubleton. If it was a singleton, then they must have started with 9xx and if it was a Doubleton, then they started with two small Clubs. There are no other possibilities. As for West, they're known to have started with Q10, Axxxx, and at least KJ and 3 or 4 Hearts.

What else do we know? Well the main thing is that the lead (not to mention the bidding) pretty much marked West with QJx(x). The standout play at this point, therefore, is to play a Heart to your 8. This will win when East started with 2 Hearts and 2 Clubs, and East will ruff if his Opening lead was a singleton, but he'll be ruffing with a natural trump trick if that's the case, because he'll have started with 9xx.

If the 8 wins, now you can cash the Club Ace and exit with a Heart. West can win and take their King, but that is all - 11 tricks easy. Even playing a Club to your Ace at this point and then exiting with Ace and another Heart still assures you of 10 tricks. What you cannot afford to do is to play a Heart to your Ace and then exit with a Heart, because now you are allowing West to win and get a trump promotion by leading a 4th round of Diamonds for Partner to ruff with his 9.

-50 rather than +1100 is a big drop

[podlecii]

hi
It depends on parnership agreement of course, but over big Club my overcalls are based on shape not on hcp count.

If I was Opener I would have double for t/o   

[OliverC]

I agree totally, Georgi. It was obvious on this hand that West was ignoring the explanation of the 1 Opening. From Opener's standpoint, even if EW can run 6 Spade tricks and the Ace, and an extra trick on the opening lead (eg: a Club), that will still leave them short of Game (and that's when Partner has nothing), so I would also be doubling 3NT, but for penalties, on the basis that it's quite likely that Partner has a Spade stop here. Competing with 4 is a very poor second choice, by comparison.

[brian_m]

I think you two are actually talking about the same type of double. Were I to hear this auction holding the South hand with Georgi as my partner, I take the double as he suggests, i.e. it's almost a 2 opener with short  but slightly off-shape to account for the 1 opener (I particularly like having 5-card  if partner is forced to scrape up a bid). It's actually offering me a choice. If I've a sure trick, maybe even two, in spades, then I'm definitely expected to pass it.

Given the vulnerability and South's hand as stated, I would give some thought to bidding 4 - I'm absolutely certain that Georgi isn't doubling without 4 card  unless he's prepared for a 5m contract opposite my 0-7, i.e. he will pull my 4 to 5 . However, the knowledge that I can hold off my  A until declarer runs out of them would persuade me to go for the penalties at equal vulnerability, I think.

I'd bid 4 as South if you changed my hand to

8532
753
1062
1075

but with 4 card  I have only two choices over the double, pass or 4 .

[OliverC]

Agreed.


...obviously Opener is short in Spades on this auction. That's a given. Since 4th-in-hand is bidding 3NT rather than 4 , it's likely they have at most two of them, which gives Partner at least 4 and quite possibly a stop.