This was quite an interesting play problem that came up in a hand with Mehmet yesterday. Sometimes you absolutely have to just make assumptions about the hand and go all out on that basis:
North (Dummy) 
QJ52
AK10765
1032
-
4 ledSouth AK7
82
AQ9
AJ972
We bid to 3NT by South (1
- 1
- 1NT - 2
- 3NT). To his credit, Mehmet didn't disturb 3NT, because clearly I wasn't interested in Hearts
at any price and couldn't possibly have 4-card Spades (no 2NT from me - if I had 4-card Spades or a holding such as
Hx, I would have bid 2NT HoC for sure).
West led the Spade 4, on which East played the 9 and I took in hand. I now led the
8 and got the bad news when West showed out discarding a small Club.
What now? You have 8 top tricks (4
, 2
, 1
and 1
) and the
only chance for a 9th is to find at least
one of the Diamond honours onside. There is absolutely
no other realistic chance of getting 9 tricks here. I rose with a top Heart, therefore, and led the
10, hoping to encourage a cover by East. East obliged by playing their King (from
Kxx!!!!), so I just cashed out for my 9 tricks and conceded the remainder.
This isn't a complicated problem. You need to be prepared to take
two finesses in Diamonds, though, even if the first one loses and the Clubs are opened up. That's essentially a 75% shot. Hoping for a favourable Club position (eg:
KQx with West) is nowhere near that probability of success, especially once West is void in Hearts.
