Sometimes you need a little luck or a mis-defence, even if you're getting the hand exactly right. I was a little lucky on this hand from a match with a decent (but non-OCP) partner, even though I assessed it right:
EW Game, Dealer NorthYou are North in a sequence of
1
- 2
- 2NT - 3NT
South (Dummy) 
K86
K43
K96
A873
Queen ledNorth AQ5
8752
AQ43
62
East leads the
Queen. How do you assess your chances?
Not good, in 2 words, LOL!If the opening lead is to be believed, West will have the Ace, singleton or doubleton, so clearly I'm ducking at trick 1. West rises with the Ace and switches to the Spade 10. Now what?
The
position was clear and now it seems likely that West probably has 5+ Spades. Prospects still don't look good unless Diamonds are 3-3 (or 5-1 with West holding a singleton 10 or Jack, but that doesn't seem very likely). Maybe something can be engineered in Clubs and I'll delay attacking the Diamonds as long as possible. I won the Spade switch with the Ace in hand and tried the
6, hoping to duck a Club into the West hand. East was having none of that, though and played the
9, so I won with the Ace and started on the Diamonds. Those, however, turned out to be 4-2 with West. On the 3rd round of Diamonds, though, East discarded a small Club.
The position was now:
South (Dummy) K8
K4
873
North Q5
875
4
2
With the lead in my hand, I've taken 5 tricks and have 3 more on top, but not
much chance for a 4th. I decided to play for East having started with
KJ94, K1094 or J1094 as my only chance. I exited with a small Club towards Dummy. If the layout was as I'd hoped, East would obviously play their smallest Club that would beat Dummy's 8 and West would either
have to overtake or might be trapped into overtaking so that they could cash their now good
10.
...and so it proved: West had started with
Q10x and overtook West's Jack in order to cash the
10. It may even be that they feared I had started with
Kxx and
Ax and this was their only chance to make their Diamond. Either way, I was now home. West cashed their Diamond, on which I discarded a Heart from Dummy, and then exited with a Club on which I discarded a Heart and East took their King. Now the
8 provided my 9th trick.
If West didn't get greedy and allowed the
Jack to win, East can clear the Hearts and still has their
King as an entry to enjoy them.
Phew! I needed a miscalculation by East or a favourable
position (
QJx or KQx with West) here and got it, but the seeds of that we (1) not being tempted to cover at trick 1 and playing at least
one round of Clubs before attacking the Diamonds (if East had played a small Club, I duck in Dummy, win the
return in hand and play
another Club to the Ace before touching the Diamonds). I couldn't allow
East to gain the lead that early, though.
