A Curious Outcome

[OliverC]

This was a somewhat curious hand and I am somewhat at a loss to explain why it is that we obtained such a good result simply by making a game that should go off, but which in practice ought to make given the way that the defence normally went (and how it went at our table was fairly typical):

Game All, Dealer West

North (Dummy)
4
K1043
AQ962
AQ10

2 led

South
J1063
A752
J84
KJ

Bidding
West     North     East     South
No          1         No       1
No          3         3      3NT(1)
No          4         All Pass

(1) Accepting invitation, but only 4-card Hearts and a Spade stop

Firstly, What does the bidding suggest to you? East's initial pass over 1 , but leaping into action with 3 over North's jump to 3 , immediately made me think that (1) East had length in Diamonds and (2) East was short in Hearts.

Anyway, East won the first trick with the Ace of Spades and (without pause for thought) switched to the Queen. Given what I've said above, I felt it was far far more likely that the Queen was a singleton than a lead from QJ98 (which I can do nothing about anyway). I had no hesitation in winning the first Heart in hand with the Ace and finessing the 10 on the way back, completely expecting East to show out (which they duly did, shedding a small Spade).

Aside
The thing is, you absolutely have to play the Hearts in this fashion anyway: Even without East coming in at the 3-level, you have no alternative but to play for any 3-2 split or for East to have a singleton honour, and when East plays the Queen on the first round, it's only sensible to finesse the 10 on the 2nd round of the suit, guarding against West having J986. playing for QJ stiff with East is way against the odds, whether you put any stock in the Principle of Restricted Choice or not.

The rest of the hand was relatively straightforward, since I was fairly sure what the layout was: I cashed the King in Dummy (leaving West with their good Jack), crossed back to the Jack, and took the losing finesse of the Queen (I was fairly sure I would find East with K10xx once West played low, because only short Hearts and length in Diamonds could really explain East's initial pass over 1 ). East played another Club, won by the King in my hand, and now the Jack revealed the expected 4-1 split in that suit. West discarded a Club rather than ruffing (their big mistake), and discarded another Club when I played a Diamond to Dummy's Ace (not wanting to ruff thin air). Now, though, I simply ruffed the 4th Diamond in my hand and West could only make his Jack once and Dummy was high otherwise.

The defence can do better than they did, it's true: If West ruffs the Jack and forces Dummy in Spades, I can't make this contract, but at that stage they cannot be sure how many Diamonds I have. Some Souths were going -2 in 4 , however, which needs a fairly determined lack of care on Declarer's part .