An Instructive Hand for Assumptions & Counting

[OliverC]

Hi All,

This was a very instructive hand I came up against earlier today while playing with Servet.
You are South at Green vs Red and end up in 3NT after the following auction:

North
982
A95
94
AJ1074

South
K4
QJ7
A102
KQ985

Bidding:
North     East    South    West
No          1      1NT       No
3NT       All Pass

Yes, my 1NT was a little pushy, but Servet's 3NT was bang on.
West led the Jack which did not look too promising for the Diamonds splitting 4-4. That won the first trick, East's King took the second round and East then continued the 7 on the 3rd round, West following with the 3 and then the 6, while I discarded a Spade from Dummy on the 3rd round. How do you take stock of the hand? At first sight it looks fairly hopeless as Opps will almost certainly make 3 Diamonds, a Spade and a Heart.

Well firstly, you have to make the assumption that the Diamonds really are 4-4, because on the bidding East surely has the Ace and King to go along with the KQ. If East has 5-card Diamonds you are definitely off. In retrospect the best tactic here is to play a Club to the 10 and lead a Spade, because East is more likely to hold up their Ace (which is essential for you) if you play a Spade early on.

I decided to put them under a little pressure first, however, and get a better count on the hand so I played 4 rounds of Clubs ending in Dummy, to which West played 2 Clubs and 2 Hearts and East played 1 Club, 2 Hearts and a Spade.

East had to be 4441 and West 4342 to start with if our assumption about the Diamonds is correct. Now I played a Spade and went up with the King with East played low. Now I had him: I cashed my 5th round of Clubs (East throwing a Spade) and then exited with a Spade to endplay him. He could take his Queen, but then had to lead away from Kx.

A simple enough endplay but easy to miss if you're not counting the hand. Once you make the assumption that the 's have to be 4-4 that really limits the number of HCP that West can have when they do not bid 2 with 4-card support for partner, which 100% rules out them having the King. When they show up with the Jack at trick 1, the most they can have is the Jack or possibly the Queen of Spades. Also, once East shows up with only 1 Club, they have to be exactly 4441 if you assumption about the Diamonds is correct or they would have opened a 5-card Major. Once you have that straight it's easy to count their discards and even drop their King if they get tricky and blank it in order to keep 3 Spades.

A better player than the East I faced might well have discarded 3 small Hearts and only a single Spade on the last Club to try to fool you into taking the finesse. They would certainly have spotted the endplay coming a mile away and gone up with the Ace on the first Spade trick, cashing the Queen and then exiting with a Spade to wait for their trick. You have to give Opps a chance to go wrong when the situation seems hopeless, though.

The full hand: https://tinyurl.com/yyztts6n

[brian_m]

To anybody reading this who might feel a little overawed by Oliver's hand reading and card play - in my opinion, the most important point is in Oliver's last sentence.

No matter what level you play at, if you find yourself in a contract where you can see no legitimate way to make it, the final chance is always to see whether you can find a mistake that an opponent could make to give you the contract, and then you play to try to give that opponent the best chance to make that mistake.

[OliverC]

Counting is the key, though, Brian:

• East opened the bidding so they have at have at least 11-12 HCP
• That in turn means that West is unlikely to have more than 3 HCP, probably less.
• Since you cannot stop East from taking their Ace at some point there is no way you can make this contract if the Diamonds are 5-3.
• Thus you have to base your play on the assumption that the Diamonds are 4-4.
• Note that you don't really lose anything if it turns out that the Diamonds are 5-3 after all.
• Once East shows up with a singleton Club, then if the are 4-4 (your assumption) East must be 4441 or they would have a 5-card Major and would have opened that instead of 1 .
• Now you can count the hand and plan to get them down to Ax, Kx, Q, - when you play the 5th round of Clubs.
• Whether they discard the small Spade or blank their King you can now endplay them with a or drop the singleton King of Hearts.

If instead they discard the Queen then you just have to credit their expert play  -  you gave it your best shot. Now they can exit to the Spade Q in West's hand and West can either cash a long Diamond or lead a through. Not many defenders will think of chucking a sure-fire winner in order to keep an exit card, however.

Please note, guys, this is not a "Hail Mary" play. Playing for West to have the King  and East to have 10x would fall into that category, for sure. Giving East the Ace, King and KQ is entirely consistent with the bidding and West's opening lead of the Jack.

[brian_m]

Counting is the key, though, Brian:

• East opened the bidding so they have at have at least 11-12 HCP
• That in turn means that West is unlikely to have more than 3 HCP, probably less.
• Since you cannot stop East from taking their Ace at some point there is no way you can make this contract if the Diamonds are 5-3.
• Thus you have to base your play on the assumption that the Diamonds are 4-4.
• Note that you don't really lose anything if it turns out that the Diamonds are 5-3 after all.
• Once East shows up with a singleton Club, then if the are 4-4 (your assumption) East must be 4441 or they would have a 5-card Major and would have opened that instead of 1 .
• Now you can count the hand and plan to get them down to Ax, Kx, Q, - when you play the 5th round of Clubs.
• Whether they discard the small Spade or blank their King you can now endplay them with a or drop the singleton King of Hearts.

If instead they discard the Queen then you just have to credit their expert play  -  you gave it your best shot. Now they can exit to the Spade Q in West's hand and West can either cash a long Diamond or lead a through. Not many defenders will think of chucking a sure-fire winner in order to keep an exit card, however.

Please note, guys, this is not a "Hail Mary" play. Playing for West to have the King  and East to have 10x would fall into that category, for sure. Giving East the Ace, King and KQ is entirely consistent with the bidding and West's opening lead of the Jack.

On this hand, I agree. I was just trying to emphasise your last sentence in the original post. IMO, it's a very important point, that many weaker players seem to miss.