Overtricks don't matter but...

[OliverC]

I know I sometimes harp on about people going off in stone cold contracts when  they didn't play the safe line to make exactly and instead either misplayed it or played for an overtrick. Sometimes, however, you find that you've potentially underbid a hand, not in the sense that you've missed a game or a slam, but in the sense that you can realistically expect to make more than one overtrick. Take this hand, for example.

Game All, Dealer West. You are North

North
  AK8
  A82
  732
  AQ32

RHO passes and you open 1 . With no opposition bidding the OCP auction proceeds:

1 - 1
1NT⁽¹⁾ - 2 ⁽²⁾
3NT⁽³⁾ - All Pass

(1) Low Beta
(2) 5 Controls
(3) You may be surprised, but I don't disagree with Eszter's bid here. We might have all 12 Controls, but she has no intermediates herself. She knows I have the K , AK and K , but if I don't have much to add to that, then the prospects for significantly more than 9 tricks are remote. What I do think she should try is 2NT HoC, just in case the bidding goes

1 - 1
1NT - 2
2NT - 3
3NT - ??

Over 3 , Eszter might even bid 6 in the sure knowledge that either I am 2335 or 4432, because with 3334 myself I would bid 3NT or 4NT over 2NT. Over the sequence shown, however, if I am sat there with a semi-balanced 5-card Clubs, I will realise at this point that Eszter is almost certainly 3334 (because she bid 2NT but hasn't shown another suit over 3 ) Even if I am 4432 with Clubs (and some extras), I will still realise that we have a decent Club fit and slam values, and push on in Clubs.

In practice, I passed 3NT (nothing I can really do over that - Give Eszter KQx, Qxx, Qxx, AQJx and she'd have bid the same way). East led the 5 and this is what Eszter could see:

South (Dummy)
  J1075
  K109
  AKJ5
  K6

North
  AK8
  A82
  732
  AQ52

9 tricks on top (2 , 2 , 2 and 3 ) without taking any finesses or developing any additional tricks. On the other hand, if Diamonds are 3-3, there are 3 tricks there (4 if the Queen is onside), and a third (or even fourth) Spade trick is easily established by taking the finesse or simple playing Ace King and another towards Dummy's J10.

On the opening lead, Eszter inserted Dummy's 9 and West contributed the Queen, taken by Declarer's Ace. What do you make of that trick? Well it may be unfashionable these days to think about Rule of 11, but if a lead looks like it might be a 4th highest lead, I feel it is sometimes worth thinking of the implications if it is. Eszter can see the AK1098 between her hand and Dummy and West has played the Queen. 5 from 11 = 6, so if the 5 is 4th highest, then West cannot have the Jack.

Anyway, enough about the Hearts for now: Eszter tried the Diamond finesse at trick 2, Dummy's Jack losing to West's Queen. West switched to the 8 , and now Eszter started to get into a bit of a pickle. She won this trick with the Queen in her hand (blocking the suit), played a Diamond to the Ace (everyone followed) and then took the Spade finesse, losing to East's Queen. No problem taking the Spade finesse, but if she needed to be in Dummy to do that, why not simple win the Club switch with the King in Dummy in the first place rather than blocking the suit?

East now fired back the 7 . If were're into taking finesses today, this is one I would always take, for the reasons given above. Eszter, though, went up with Dummy's King (West showed out) and (without unblocking the Clubs) cashed the top 2 Spades in her hand, in the process getting the bad news that East had started with Qx when they discarded the 9 on the 3rd Spade. Worst of all, the position is now

South (Dummy)
  10
  10
  K5
  K

North
  -
  8
  7
  A52

...and she is in her hand after taking only 6 tricks. If she cashes the Ace of Clubs, it crashes with the King. She can enjoy 2 Diamonds, the 10 and the King of Clubs, but cannot now make the Ace of Clubs separately, because she has no way back to hand. In fact it got worse, because she crossed to the K , cashed the 10 , and then orphaned the [good] 5 by overtaking the K with the Ace and had to concede the last 2 tricks for +600, the exact 9 tricks she started out with if she'd taken no finesses and not developed anything.

Actually, 13 tricks are fairly simple (as the cards lie) on this hand if you get the Majors right: Win the opening trick with the Ace in hand, lay down the AK of Spades, When the Queen falls, take the Heart finesse against East's Jack (or you can even do that before tackling the Spades), cash the J10 , K and AK . Everyone has to come down to 4 cards:

South (Dummy)
  -
  -
  J5
  K6

North
  -
 
 
  AQ52

You know by this point that West started out with the singleton Q and 4 small Spades so they have 8 cards between the Minors. That makes it a good bet that West has the Club length. If they also have the Q (which is certain if they only have 4-card Clubs), they are now squeezed, because they cannot retain the Q and 4 Clubs. This may sound fanciful, but, as I said at the start, playing Ace, King and another Spade is just as good a method of making 1 extra Spade trick as taking the finesse. Taking the finesse only produces 2 extra tricks when the Spades are 3-3, or West has Qx, covers the Jack,  and you're prepared to take a 3rd round finesse against East's remaining 9x. Playing out the AK always produces 3 tricks and produces 4 whenever either defender started with Qx.

Once we know East started with 6 Hearts and only 5 cards in the Minors, and that West has 8 Minor suit cards, cashing the AK and going for the squeeze Minor squeeze against West  is an odds on proposition. Even if East does turn up with the Queen of Diamonds, you're still making 12 tricks.

PLANNING is one of the key facets of Declarer play. Sometimes you might need to temporarily block a suit, but you should always have a plan for unblocking it when you do so. Similarly, if a lead looks, feels and smells like 4th highest, and the play to the first trick seems to confirm it, it's wise to treat it as 4th highest in later play. Here there were effectively no "bid" or "unbid" suits, and so it's highly likely that the opening lead against 3NT will be from East's longest and strongest suit.


+600 was worth 3 IMPs. +690 was worth 5 and +720 would have been worth nearly 6.


Lots of Pairs were in slams, going off (nobody listens to me!) and 3NT making would have been worth a better score except for one idiot East who doubled 3NT holding Qx, Jxxxxx, xxx, xx, promptly got redoubled, and Declarer make 12 tricks for +2200!!!! Not a single pair, amazingly, bid and made 6NT, despite 2 of them getting a lead of a 4th highest Heart. Tut Tut!