What's the Best Line?

[OliverC]

Eszter got a shared top on the following hand, despite not following what I would have thought was the best line. Having said that I'm not entirely certain myself what the best line is, and I certainly can't argue with success, but she was helped by not one but two pieces of suicidal defence:

Love All, Dealer West

You are North, and you and partner bid to 3NT via the Cambridge Heart Complex. East leads the & and this is what you can see:

South (Dummy)
  J104
  Q84
  A653
  632

  7 led

North (You)
  AK73
  A63
  Q9
  AK97

You play low from Dummy and take West's Jack of Diamonds with your Queen. So far so good, but what is our plan? You can see 7 top tricks (2 , 2 , 1 and 2 ). An 8th will come easily enough if the Clubs are 3-3, and 9 tricks will come automatically if West has Qxx.

The problem here is that the opening lead does not look like a 4th-highest lead from a 4-card suit and I would (wrongly, as it happens) have tentatively placed East with at least 5, if not 6 Diamonds. Because of that I (personally) think you have to go for this all out. I think I would have crossed to the Ace of Diamonds at trick 2 and run the Jack of Spades, West does, in fact, have Qxx and   QJxx, and in the end-game you can end-play them in Clubs to lead away from the King of Hearts for an overtrick.

Eszter's line was no less successful: At trick 2 she played Ace, King and a 3rd Club. West took her 2 Club tricks and, no doubt thinking Declarer had the Diamonds sewn up, obligingly exited with the Queen of Spades. Eszter took the Ace of Spades and then the J10 of Spades in Dummy and then a small Heart from Dummy. no doubt thinking East must have something in Hearts, West hopped up with the King. Eszter took the Ace of Hearts and cashed the King of Spades.

Actually if Eszter had read the spot cards well enough, she might have realised that East was mercillessly squeezed in the red suits on this trick. East was holding onto J10 (having previously discarded the 9) and K 10 (having previously discarded the at this juncture and had to discard in front of Dummy's Q8 and A6. Whatever suit East discarded, Declarer can discard from the other red suit in Dummy and make the last 3 tricks for +460 and an outright top, when most Pairs were going off in 3NT on this hand, no doubt on an initial Heart lead from East (who had started with J1095).

There is no doubt that the successful line on a lead is to cross immediately over to the Ace and run the Jack of Spades. Whether that is a priori the best line I'm not quite so certain, because if the Spsde finesse loses, the Diamonds will be wide open, and we definitely don't want a switch from East unless they have the King.

Any other ideas?

[brian_m]

My thought would be NOT to voluntarily play off the  A - if opponents knock it out, then by all means stake everything on the  finesse, but why not give opponents the chance to make a mistake first, if you can? I like Eszter's line of playing  first - if you can judge from the cards that you're going to lose  to West, then do so. As we see from the actual play, good things may happen - and if you read it wrong, and East takes the 3rd    and finds the  switch, which is a racing certainty at that point if East doesn't hold  K, then you're still no worse off than having to rely on the  Q being right.

I forget who it was that said it, but opponents can't make mistakes if you don't give them chance to do so, and while playing for opps to butcher the defence might not be the most satisfying way to make a contract, if the extra chance costs nothing, then why not go for it? 


Typo corrected above - 3rd CLUB not 3rd heart

[OliverC]

Yes. As I said to Eszter at the time, if I was going to open up Clubs at all, it would have started with either a small Club, or Ace and then a small Club, because I'd definitely want to concede my losing Club trick early on if the Clubs were 3-3, rather than risk losing control of the suit if they were 4-2 or worse. The advantage in Eszter's line is that it was West who had QJxx in Clubs and the play to the first trick somehow convinced West there was no future in continuing Diamonds .


Definitely the advantage in ducking a Club at trick 2 and then running the Jack of Spades at trick 4 if Opps continue Diamonds, is that you've established your 9 tricks if the Queen of Spades is onside, but the Spades are not 3-3, as long as the Clubs are 3-3, and the Diamonds aren't something like 5-2.

[brian_m]

You pays your money and takes your choice. As far as I can see, the problem with ducking a club at trick 2 is that should East turn up with a doubleton honour, you should have pretty much guaranteed your  return, unless East is looking at the  K, when you'll no doubt get another  .

  AK first, while it runs the risk of a 5-1 break, has the potential of forcing West to make the decision, and I think it's that bit more difficult from the West seat. It would take an inspired West to pitch  Q on the  K so as to let East win the 3rd round with  J.

[kiwi_2o1]

Hello all. I would have ducked the first small club and not touched diamonds. Let them lead D's and then take C hook.

[OliverC]

Fair enough. The issue, though, is that Clubs are never going to give you your 9th trick, so they are something of a red herring. At the end of the day, you can only take the Spade finesse after the Diamonds have been cleared, because the Ace of Diamonds is your only sure entry to Dummy.

The argument in favour of taking the Spade finesse early on is that it's the finesse you have to take into the dangerous hand (East). If West eventually leads Hearts you cannot be denied 2 tricks, but you can end up with only 1 Heart trick if East leads them (as they should have at trick 1, as it happens). East is perhaps more likely to continue Diamonds rather than switching to Hearts if you've taken the finesse early on than if you do it later in the hand. If you start playing on Clubs, it tips Opps off to where the majority of your strength is, so now a switch is much more likely if East wins whichever Club you duck.

As you say, Brian, the potential advantage of Ace, King and another Club is if West wins the 3rd Club and the Clubs are no worse than 4-2. West ended up thinking Declarer had the King and felt they could do no better than to take the finesse for you

[kiwi_2o1]

Oliver, your line is fine to me but I would eat the herring. 

To me the key is the timing of the Diamond entries removal. The hand is dead to us both unless the spade finesse works? So it does! The AD is access to the table but give them the opportunity to lead it   ... and they most likely will?  And they would expect any line that doesn't knock out the diamond hold as normal so the play in another suit would appear reasonable to most defenders. For that reason I don't think the initial club play is as revealing as you say and especially to the defender who holds the KH. So I will duck the first club for a potential extra club trick. The immediate duck doesn't give too much away; less than delayed and extra count information, if not more. The duck is my best opportunity to make them guess.

OK, then they don't lead diamonds as hoped but a heart. Now its time to win the diamond. I'm in a similar position to one plan in needing the hook to work. For that sequence when the hook wins you have no opportunity to duck in clubs so at least 9 tricks. If clubs are 3-3 all along, my sequence is at least 10 tricks at little cost? I think many defenders would knock out the AD against the risk of opening the heart suit after the initial duck short of any other clues.

BTW, I think Eszter's line is very dangerous. "At trick 2 she played Ace, King and a 3rd Club".
If clubs following are 4-2 the two tricks are immediately lost AND the other defender has had a chance to direct the defence with his signal. Now besides the spade play there is little hope of an extra crumb. The play of A then KC deserves a 5-1 break and now the defences focus now is also on hearts.

Oliver says "As you say, Brian, the potential advantage of Ace, King and another Club is if West wins the 3rd Club and the Clubs are no worse than 4-2. West ended up thinking Declarer had the King and felt they could do no better than to take the finesse for you " 
After two clubs, they would hopefully not be worse than 4-2 but to any decent defenders, the order of the last two clubs played by EW will likely give information about other suits for the defenders. In effect one defender could say to or not to lead spades. The blind lead of the QS is just that, blind. So bad I would not have considered that possibility in my planning. As well Eszter's play of the top two clubs gives up all control of the suit, and some flexibility that might be required later in the hand. IMO a poorer play. I'd like some crumbs with my herring, please.

That was a nightmare look ahead. My opponent didn't lead hearts and instead knocked out the AD as hoped. My post is like one of those horrible films where the scenes jump all over the place. Back to reality.

We play on, but the finesse loses. Damm. OK, lets hope the 8D was a short lead  ... doubleton it has to be, so it is, at least we still have the extra chance that the club duck gave us for the 9th trick. Did we survive?

At the worst a third diamond is lead, but doesn't that also break any other sequence? I think I've covered most of my bases without giving the opponents information that might have reduced their guesses. At least they do have a guess, that might have been my only real hope in the end.

What. The defender lead the 8D from 4 small. Thank goodness I didn't cash those top clubs. Thank you for the 5-1 break. Thank you Herring, Justice at last. Now I need the KH to be well placed. So it is! Surely after all those setbacks something is OK.

No its off too. What a mess, 27 HCP, no game, two undertricks. Partner cheerful as usual observes, another other pair made it with the same lead. Bloody Herring.


In summary IMO this hand is about good planning and counting. Combining chances. Timing. Making assumptions that will allow you to succeed if all other plans are likely to fail. Sometimes an early play in a key suit before the opponents know what is happening may give them more problems. Giving the opponents as little information as is possible. If all else is equal, at least give them plays that allow them a guess

I'm guilty of not reading all the other replies. I see now most of my opinions have already been voiced in earlier posts.