Author Topic: When Opps Drop the Ball...  (Read 8461 times)

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Offline OliverC

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When Opps Drop the Ball...
« on: September 18, 2017, 09:32:09 PM »
Sometimes Opps get to a perfectly reasonable contract which ought to make easily, but Declarer fumbles the ball. You need to make certain you punish them in such circumstances. Take this hand, on which you are North, Love All, Dealer West.

North
 !S 6
 !H K865432
 !D K953
 !C 8

Bidding
West     North     East     South

1 !S       3 !H (w) 4 !S      All Pass

You try the lead of the !C 8 and Dummy puts down

                    South (Partner)
                    !S ??
                    !H ??
                    !D ??
                    !C ??

East (Dummy) ________  West (Declarer)
 !S K1093         |                |  !S ??
 !H Q109          |                |  !H ??
 !D Q1084         |                | !D ??
 !C AQ              |_________| !C ??
                    North
                    !S 6
                    !H K865432
                    !D K953
                    !C 8

EW shrug off your weak jump overcall and bid to game. Declarer wins the first trick with Dummy's Ace of Clubs(Partner plays a discouraging 6) and leads a small Spade to his Ace, Partner playing low. He now continues with a small Spade to Dummy's King, and then the !S 9, which Partner takes with the Queen. Partner cashes the !H Ace, on which you encourage with the 3, but then switches to the Diamond 6. After some thought, Declarer plays low (the 2) and you take your King. Now what?

It should be clear at this point that Opps have dropped the ball, in that given your 3 !H WJO, the sensible thing would be to play Partner for length in Spades rather than the other way around, So you must take advantage of that slip and take this contract off if possible.

What is the likely distribution of the other hands? Firstly Partner has 3 Spades and it's looking like they have a singleton Diamond or something like Jxx (You can see the 3, 4, and 5 between your hand and Dummy and Declarer played the 2 on the first Diamond trick, so Partner has played their lowest Diamond). Since Declarer must have the Diamond Ace to justify their opening bid, that leaves them with probably 2 of them (A2) and Partner with J76. That in turn means Partner has 6 Clubs not including the King (which must be with Declarer). Partner is unlikely to have 5 Clubs, because there are too many Clubs missing if the 6 !C was not an echo, showing an even number). That in turn means that Declarer started with !S AJxxx, !H Jx, !D A2, !C K???.

Looking at it from another viewpoint: It is possible that Partner started with !H AJ and simply switched to a Diamond to avoid endplaying you with the Ace of Hearts (expecting you to have 6 and therefore Declarer to have 2), but it's much more likely that Partner has switch because the Ace of Hearts was his only card in the suit. In any case, you can tell that if Declarer did indeed start with a singleton Heart, 2 Diamonds and 5 Clubs, there's nothing you can do to beat this contract (because Dummy's Hearts are going away on the long Clubs or any losing Clubs Declarer has are going away on the !D Q10, because Partner's Jack will fall under the Queen).

The bottom line here is that all indications are that when winning the !D King, you should try to cash the King of Hearts rather then returning a Diamond. Declarer here had started with !S AJxxx, !HJx, !D A2, !C KJ103, and Partner with !S Q42, !H A, !D J76, !C 976542, and this was the only chance to make the !H King. Returning a Diamond, placing Partner with either the !C King or the Diamond Ace, simply doesn't take account of the bidding or the play to trick 1 (If Declarer was somehow missing the !C King, he would surely have finessed the Queen on trick 1 since he is never going to have a chance to discard it on anything from his hand).
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 06:23:05 PM by OliverC »
Oliver

Offline brian_m

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2017, 03:53:32 PM »
It took me a minute to realise what was wrong here, as it appeared that your lead of  !C 8 was up to the  !C AQ. I'm sure it was just a typo on your part, but for the benefit of anybody else who didn't twig, this is one of the 'club Xmas party' hands where the play goes anti-clockwise :)
Please note that the responses I give are based on my current understanding of the system, and I've checked the website if in any doubt. I didn't attend Oliver's classes until 2021-22, so if Oliver has said anything different in his lessons in earlier years, I don't know about it!

Offline OliverC

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2017, 06:20:16 PM »
Brian, West (unseen) is Declarer. East (Dummy) sits on the left of North (Eszter), who was on lead against 4 !S. Eszter led the !C 8 through Dummy's !C AQ. I don't think there's anything wrong with the layout or the account of the hand.
Oliver

Offline brian_m

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2017, 08:38:51 PM »
Brian, West (unseen) is Declarer. East (Dummy) sits on the left of North (Eszter), who was on lead against 4 !S. Eszter led the !C 8 through Dummy's !C AQ. I don't think there's anything wrong with the layout or the account of the hand.

Well then we need someone else to look at the hand diagram (I'm not talking about the .LIN file!), because it certainly appears to me that you have North seated on East's left, not vice versa as you correctly state should be the case. I will e-mail you a screenshot of how it appears on my screen on request. 

I'm talking about the position of the hands as shown below the text "You try the lead of the !C 8 and Dummy puts down"



Please note that the responses I give are based on my current understanding of the system, and I've checked the website if in any doubt. I didn't attend Oliver's classes until 2021-22, so if Oliver has said anything different in his lessons in earlier years, I don't know about it!

Offline OliverC

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2017, 09:59:54 AM »
Brian,

I really can't believe we're having this conversation.

Imagine that North is at the bottom of the hand diagram rather than East being at the top, lol. North is "you" and so is inevitably at the bottom, and East is visibly on North's left. There is no way that Dummy would ever be on the opening leader's right. :)
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 10:01:37 AM by OliverC »
Oliver

Offline brian_m

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2017, 04:41:51 PM »
Brian,

I really can't believe we're having this conversation.

Neither can I, unless we're seeing radically different things on our screen.


Imagine that North is at the bottom of the hand diagram rather than East being at the top, lol. North is "you" and so is inevitably at the bottom, and East is visibly on North's left. There is no way that Dummy would ever be on the opening leader's right. :)

That was my point. As I see the diagram on my screen, north and east have swapped places. I'll e-mail you a screenshot so we're sure that you're seeing what I'm seeing. OK, it's understandable, just off-putting, at least to me, and I can't think I'm the only one. Anyway, you have a screenshot on the way via e-mail.
Please note that the responses I give are based on my current understanding of the system, and I've checked the website if in any doubt. I didn't attend Oliver's classes until 2021-22, so if Oliver has said anything different in his lessons in earlier years, I don't know about it!

Offline OliverC

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2017, 04:46:21 PM »
Gordon Bennett, Brian. Imagine you are North, but we've rotated the hand diagram by 180 degrees. Who is [still] sitting on your left? :)  In the hand diagram, East is at the extreme left of the hand diagram, not at the top of it. Good grief.
Oliver

Offline brian_m

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2017, 04:59:21 PM »
Gordon Bennett, Brian. Imagine you are North, but we've rotated the hand diagram by 180 degrees. Who is [still] sitting on your left? :)  In the hand diagram, East is at the extreme left of the hand diagram, not at the top of it. Good grief.

The way the hand diagram appears on my screen, WEST will STILL be sitting on my left. - that's unless you mean that the axis of rotation is in the plane of the screen, of course, which seems rather unlikely.

I sent you that screenshot.
Please note that the responses I give are based on my current understanding of the system, and I've checked the website if in any doubt. I didn't attend Oliver's classes until 2021-22, so if Oliver has said anything different in his lessons in earlier years, I don't know about it!

Offline OliverC

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2017, 06:20:52 PM »

Brian, the hand diagram (in which East is on the left-hand side of the hand diagram), clearly shows East on your left. To make it clearer, I've now put West in (on your right) in green. I've even put the outline of the table in, just for you :).

For those who have a hard time figuring out points of the compass, I've slightly amended the original hand diagram. As I've said before, North is at the bottom of this diagram, which has been rotated by 180 degrees because the hand is viewed from North's standpoint.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 06:23:37 PM by OliverC »
Oliver

Offline brian_m

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2017, 07:22:12 PM »

Brian, the hand diagram (in which East is on the left-hand side of the hand diagram), clearly shows East on your left. To make it clearer, I've now put West in (on your right) in green. I've even put the outline of the table in, just for you :).

For those who have a hard time figuring out points of the compass, I've slightly amended the original hand diagram. As I've said before, North is at the bottom of this diagram, which has been rotated by 180 degrees because the hand is viewed from North's standpoint.


OK, now I see what you've done. I read it as you wanted to rotate North to the bottom of the diagram. It just didn't occur to me that the table was over the hands rather than under them, so I had the axis of rotation in the wrong place. Put it down to too many statistics courses as a student...
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 07:24:15 PM by brian_m »
Please note that the responses I give are based on my current understanding of the system, and I've checked the website if in any doubt. I didn't attend Oliver's classes until 2021-22, so if Oliver has said anything different in his lessons in earlier years, I don't know about it!

Offline OliverC

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2017, 10:31:31 AM »
:) When is East not on North's left?
Oliver

Offline RogerPfi

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2017, 11:00:58 AM »
I am puzzled why either of you were "not getting" the other.

Oliver has been kind to us by supplying the lin file so all one needs to do in play it in aaBridge (which will, being java, even run on Brian's Linux) and it there in a "straight from BBO" layout.

(and a couple of clicks and it can be rotated to Oliver's preferred viewing point).

and TY Oliver for the lin files

--
Roger

Offline brian_m

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2017, 11:30:39 AM »
:) When is East not on North's left?

When the hand diagram has been drawn so that the table is below the two hands shown, not above them. For some reason, I just had a complete mental blank about putting the table above the North hand rather than below the East hand. And Roger, I was viewing the hand in Firefox. not aabridge.

« Last Edit: September 21, 2017, 11:33:34 AM by brian_m »
Please note that the responses I give are based on my current understanding of the system, and I've checked the website if in any doubt. I didn't attend Oliver's classes until 2021-22, so if Oliver has said anything different in his lessons in earlier years, I don't know about it!

Offline OliverC

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Re: When Opps Drop the Ball...
« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2017, 05:36:25 PM »
 :)
Roger, I absolutely was getting what Brian's problem was. I tried several times to explain that we were viewing this from North's viewpoint (ie: North was at the bottom of the hand diagram), and eventually even drew in the unseen hands and the outline of the table to make it 100% clear. :)
Oliver