As I said a while back, I never tire of telling you guys to
COUNT YOUR TRICKS!!! Take this hand
You are North, the Dealer at Love All, holding this lovely lot:
North 
54
AJ7
J95
KQ983
You open a 10-12 1NT and everyone passes. East leads the
3 and this is what you can see when Dummy goes down:
South (Dummy) 98
Q4
AQ7632
J42
3 led
North 54
AJ7
J95
KQ983
You try the
Queen from Dummy and it holds (West plays the 6). What now?
Firstly, it
must be right to play on the
Clubs rather than the Diamonds, since you
always have the Ace of Clubs to lose. You try a small Club to your Queen. East wins the Ace and fires back the
8.
Do you finesse or not?
NO!!!!A thousand times no!!!!Count Your tricks!2 Hearts, the Ace of Diamonds and probably 4 Clubs is 7 tricks. It should be abundantly clear that East doesn't have the kind of Spade holding that makes a Spade lead remotely attractive, since they've had not one but two chances to lead Spades and have declined to do so. You cannot afford to risk letting West on lead here, because a flood of Spades is bound to follow. You know the Spades are wide open and it's probable that West does, but clearly East doesn't. So rise with the Ace of Diamonds, cash the Jack of Clubs (both Opps follow) and claim your 7 tricks. At the table, Eszter risked everything in the hope of making 12 tricks. West won and duly started on the Spades (West had AKQ10x). Eszter was only saved by the fact that East, with J762, blocked the suit even though Eszter and Dummy both showed out on the 3rd round. You can't rely on Opps to save you, though 
.
