What to lead?

[OliverC]

This was an interesting hand I played with a South African * player in a match yesterday, the result of which hinged totally on my choice of opening lead:

EW Game, Dealer North

You are South:

South
  K1098763
  6
  A6
!K KJ7

Bidding
North     East     South     West
1         1       1 ⁽¹⁾    3
4         No        4 ⁽²⁾     5
No          No        ??

(1) 5+ Spades
(2) Obviously 6-card or longer Spades

What now? It's fairly obvious that West and North are both fairly short in Spades (West because of their 3 jump, which sounds like a void, and North because of their failure to support Spades), so I wasn't about to insist on my Spades. Similarly, given the vulnerability it was fairly obvious that EW were playing poker rather than Bridge, because clearly North has a Minor 2-suiter and we certainly appear to have the balance of the points. I didn't think we could possibly make 6 in either Minor either, so I was left with simply doubling 5 and everyone passed.

What to lead? I decided that a Spade lead was not likely to be a success, especially if West was void in Spades (although both North and West having a singleton seemed more likely otherwise that would probably give East 5-card Spades). A trump wasn't indicated either since clearly EW had a big Heart fit and so I was unlikely to cut down much in the way of ruffs (I'm provisionally putting Partner with something like 1255 shape).

It seemed to come down to leading one of the Minors, therefore. In the end I chose the wrong one (Diamonds), but I'm pretty much on a complete guess anyway. This was the hand:

                   North
                    A
                    K
                    QJ8743
                    Q6542
West                                 East
  Q                                    J542
  J108753                          AQ942
  109                                K52
  A1083                            9
                   South
                    K1098763
                    6
                    A6
                    KJ7

As you can see, any lead other than a Diamond takes 5 off and a Spade lead will get it -2 ( switch at trick 2). After the lead of the Ace of Diamonds, however, Declarer can just cross-ruff his way to glory, losing only a Spade. Even against perfect defence, 5 !SX is only -2, which would have been cheaper than 5!HX making LOL.